I don’t remember when I first began using the phrase “most fruitful hypothesis,” but for decades I have found it a useful frame for making decisions in complex and ambiguous situations. Looking for the most fruitful hypothesis helps me resolve the confusion I feel when facing complexity or circumstances which are rapidly changing.

When I have introduced the concept of seeking the most fruitful hypothesis to other people, it’s usually helpful as we work to find a good solution to whatever they are facing.

For example, I have worked with multiple clients whose work environments have changed dramatically for the worse. Often there has been a reorg or a change of supervisor or other personnel, but sometimes it’s hard to even identify a specific change that has precipitated one’s discomfort or unease. Yet you still need to figure out how to respond.

There are two common ways people approach these situations. One is to blame oneself, which often takes the form of “trying harder,” either by working more or by repeatedly attempting to persuade a boss or co-worker to see things our way. These people may ask me to help them find “the right words” to convey their motivation or their reasoning or they may want help prioritizing the many tasks they are trying to accomplish.

A second common response is “I’ve got to get out of here.” People may ask me for help updating their resume or LinkedIn profile or they may be looking for new tips on networking techniques and venues.

The thing is, when we start talking about how to deal with the identified problem, it turns out people aren’t clear about what they want. The person who wants help with finding the right words or with prioritizing is often wondering whether it would be better to spend their energy looking for another job. The person who wants help with job search wonders whether maybe they should “stick it out” or “stay and fight.” When clients are second-guessing themselves in that way, I need to help them find another approach. That’s when we start looking for the most fruitful hypothesis about what to do.

The first step is usually to help my client sort out the variables in the situation. I might start by asking some of these questions:

Are others in the department or organization complaining about the change?
Does the boss seem to have favorites and scapegoats?
Have you tried a variety of ways of asking for direction or feedback?
Can you discern anything about your boss’ or colleague’s preferred style of communication that might be useful?

While these might seem like simple questions, answering them opens up a significant amount of space in which to gain clarity. The answers don’t just help define what is going on, they tell us where to pay attention and where we will have the greatest chance to do something that will make a difference. Often one observation stands out from the rest as the best thread to pull, which lets us articulate a hypothesis, which means we have a tentative explanation of what we’re seeing, which we can test by further observation.

Using this hypothesis as our guide, we can create some “experiments” for the client to try as a way of gaining clarity. Let’s look at a few examples of how this could go:

If it becomes evident that there are favorites and scapegoats within the organization, we know that “trying harder” will most likely be a fruitless endeavor. In this case, our work would move toward taking strong action. This might look like going to HR right away, seeking other employment, or seeking out allies within the organization. One’s initial “I’ve got to get out of here” instinct might have been the proper response in this situation.
If it instead becomes clear that a significant number of members of the organization have a similarly negative feeling about a recent change, or if they feel that they don’t know what's going on, it’s likely that the issue is contextual or structural. A healthy “try harder” approach might be the most fruitful option here. This might look like drawing in any individuals who may be contributing to the issue because of feelings of overwhelm, and generally helping to convey the message of community: “We are all in this together.”
If it appears that there is an issue of (mis-)communication, an attempt at supportive action could prove quite fruitful. What this looks like varies with the situation, but it could be as simple as asking someone how they prefer to receive information or as vulnerable as trying a new method of communication yourself after observing what the preferences are around a meeting table.

In general, my first assumption is that it’s fruitful to try to resolve the difficulty. Identifying variables and testing out potential solutions is part of finding out whether that’s going to be possible in a particular case.

Sometimes though, I’m the one who says, “I think you’ve identified a sufficient number of events or interactions which tell us that this is a truly toxic situation, and it’s time to take serious action.” This might mean seeking advice or intervention from Human Resources, it might mean consulting a mentor inside or outside the organization, it might mean consulting an attorney, or it might mean talking to your doctor about the stress you’re experiencing as a first step in negotiating a leave of absence.

In any case, it is not fruitful to remain stagnant and dissatisfied in a situation, regardless of its primary cause. Working through this process to generate a fruitful hypothesis about how to solve the issue is a key first step in taking accountability for your own experience and in contributing to an organization in the most effective manner possible. Sometimes that will mean digging in and creating a solution internally. Sometimes that will mean taking a break or leaving altogether. Either of these options may be fruitful, but neither should be chosen without first determining the variables and experimenting with a variety of potential solutions. If you begin working through this “fruitful hypothesis” approach, I would be happy to know your results. And if you find yourself needing support through the process, I am only an email away.

Fruitful Hypothesis

What’s Waiting Outside Your Comfort Zone?